Rates dashboard
US yield curve
Bear-steepening pressure is visible in a long end well above the policy rate. Cause requires decomposition.
Constant-maturity curve
● Current18 Aug 2026 · % per annum
3.86%3M
4.19%2Y
4.37%5Y
4.71%10Y
5.28%20Y
5.28%30Y
Source: Federal Reserve H.15 · Constant-maturity estimates, not individual securities.
Steepening is not one signal
Bull steepening usually means short yields fall faster. Bear steepening means long yields rise faster. Growth, inflation, supply and term premium can produce different asset effects.
Current interpretation
The 10-year exceeds the 2-year while model-based term premium is positive and high. That supports—without proving—the long-end fiscal-pressure theme.