What changed in macro?
A quiet week in headlines still changed the balance of evidence: long yields remained resistant, inflation sent mixed signals, and technology investment continued to cushion global growth.
1. Long-end fiscal pressure stayed established
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.71% on 18 August, above the 2-year yield of 4.19%. The San Francisco Fed’s model estimated the 10-year term premium at 1.30% on 19 August. That does not prove fiscal supply caused the move, but it is consistent with investors demanding material compensation beyond expected overnight rates.
Federal Reserve H.15 · SF Fed term premium
2. Inflation persistence received a mixed update
July CPI was unchanged month over month, contradicting a simple “inflation is accelerating” story. Yet the 12-month CPI rate remained 3.4%, while the 10-year breakeven reached 2.34% on 20 August. The theme remains persistence and volatility—not a claim that every release must rise.
3. AI capex remains a growth offset, with a harder test ahead
The IMF’s July framework identifies the technology upcycle as a force offsetting part of the war-related drag. But its baseline assumes the cycle moderates and does not embed an exogenous productivity boost. The next phase must be judged on utilization, cash flow and measured productivity—not spending announcements alone.
What to monitor next
US July PCE on 26 August is the nearest cross-theme catalyst. Sequential core prices affect the inflation thesis, while real consumption tests whether growth remains resilient. The second-estimate GDP release arrives the same day and may include revisions; first-release and revised estimates should not be conflated.