Frameworks over forecasts
Five cornerstone resources built to improve the process of macro reasoning—not increase prediction volume.
strengthened / weakened / emerging
What changed in macro?
Long-end rates stayed firm, July CPI delivered a mixed signal, and AI investment continued to offset part of the global energy drag.
Read the evidence change log →How to identify a real macro theme before consensus
A durable theme needs a mechanism, a measurable evidence set and a reason markets may not have fully absorbed it.
Read guide →Growth, inflation, liquidity and policy: a regime framework
Four axes are more useful than one market label because they reveal the conflicts that drive cross-asset dispersion.
Read guide →How interest rates flow through bonds, currencies, equities and gold
“Rates rose” is an observation. Expected policy, real yields, inflation compensation and term premium explain very different worlds.
Read guide →What global liquidity actually means and how to measure it
A defensible liquidity dashboard starts with definitions, currencies, balance sheets and failure cases—not one unexplained composite.
Read guide →Why macro theses fail: confirmation, positioning and regime change
A thesis can describe the economy correctly and still fail as a market call. Accountability requires separating those outcomes.
Read guide →