Theme states
Emerging means early but coherent evidence. Strengthening means breadth, consistency or market confirmation improved. Established means persistent, cross-confirmed evidence. Weakening means contradictory evidence is accumulating. Breaking means invalidation criteria are close or met. Dormant means structurally relevant but not currently active.
Confidence without pseudo-precision
High, moderate and low conviction summarize data breadth, consistency, persistence, historical context, cross-market confirmation and contradictions. We do not translate these labels into arbitrary probabilities. Every badge must be explainable from the visible scorecard.
Source hierarchy
Primary sources come first: central banks, statistical agencies, finance ministries, IMF, World Bank, OECD, BIS and market exchanges. Institutional research can frame competing interpretations. Unsourced charts, anonymous screenshots and social-media claims are not evidence.
Data known then vs data known now
Macro data are revised. Current indicator pages show the latest verified reading and revision policy. Historical signal evaluation should use vintages available at the decision date. Where vintage data are unavailable, we say so and do not imply the revised series was known in real time.
Freshness states
Pages distinguish observation date, release date, article update and site refresh. Failed sources preserve the last verified value only when its date and failure state remain visible.
Asset relationships
Labels describe conditional sensitivities, not trade instructions. We consider the source of the shock, horizon, valuation, positioning and market confirmation. “Inflation up” is insufficient to infer one deterministic outcome for gold, the dollar or equities.
Important limitations
Macro relationships are unstable and causal inference is difficult. Correlation does not establish causation. Historical analogues are scenario aids, not forecasts. MacroThemes provides research and education—not personalized advice, execution or guaranteed outcomes.