Cross-asset map
One theme. Many transmission paths.
Directional labels summarize conditional sensitivity. Click a theme for the evidence and competing forces.
| Theme | Equities | Bonds | USD | Gold | Oil | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation persistence | Mixed | Negative | Mixed | Conditional | Positive | Mixed |
| Long-end fiscal pressure | Mixed | Negative | Mixed | Conditional | Mixed | Mixed |
| AI capex cycle | Positive | Negative | Mixed | Mixed | Positive | Mixed |
| Policy divergence | Mixed | Mixed | Dispersion | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed |
Bonds
Expected policy is only half the story
Decompose yields into expected short rates, inflation compensation and term premium.
Gold
Never force one driver
Real yields, the dollar, reserve demand and fiscal concern can point in different directions.
Bitcoin
Macro input, not a slogan
Liquidity and risk appetite matter, alongside institution-specific flows, supply and regulation.